Should You Launch a Token in 2025 or Will It Sink Your Project?

When most new tokens lose more than 80 % of their value soon after listing, the idea of launching one sounds like a gamble. A February 2025 analysis warned project owners to brace for such declines, citing thin liquidity and inflated valuations. Against this backdrop, Supermoon’s Startup Day panel “The Road to TGE” asked whether token generation events still make sense.

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Moderator Jessie Xiao (Starknet Foundation) was joined by Alex Momot (Peanut Trade), Colton Conley (Arrington Capital), and Mansoor Madhavji (Blockchain Founders Fund). Their first consensus was that tokens are not a shortcut. Colton noted that the vast majority of tokens trade below issue price within a year. Mansoor explained that the best-performing startups in his portfolio have delayed or abandoned token plans, focusing instead on solving customer problems and generating revenue.

That does not mean all TGEs are doomed. The panelists drew a line between “pump and dump” launches and those built on genuine demand. Colton outlined two playbooks: western teams often wait until product traction and revenue can sustain a token, while some Asian projects use an early launch to build a treasury. Either way, he said, only a genuine community and clear utility justify a token. Alex advised founders to push the TGE date as close as possible to product release and to invest in marketing and community because “attention is as scarce as capital.”

They also addressed new launch methods. Listing on decentralized exchanges or perpetual DEXs might provide early liquidity, but Mansoor argued the venue matters less than whether users care; if no one uses the protocol, the token “is going to zero.” DATs and tokenized equity vehicles were deemed risky for early-stage projects without an established business. Alex reminded founders that choosing the right market maker is critical and that they must understand liquidity terms and stage listings carefully rather than expecting a counterparty to “handle everything.”

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The key takeaway is sustainable TGEs are built, not timed. Founders should concentrate on creating real products, cultivating loyal users, and aligning incentives. Without those fundamentals, token launches are likely to repeat the same post-listing collapse that plagues most projects.

As the market matures, the real question is no longer whether to launch a token, but when it truly makes sense to do so. In 2025, timing alone will not save a weak project, but substance and community might. Supermoon’s panel made that clear: the next wave of successful TGEs will come from products with value, not hype.